GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT, ENERGY SHOCKS, AND GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY: DEVELOPMENT IMPLICATIONS OF THE IRAN–ISRAEL CONFLICT

Abstract

This article presents a cohesive framework explaining how international tensions can cause major disruptions to the entire world’s energy, economic, and environmental systems, with subsequent effects on global development outcomes. The author conceptualizes conflict as a ‘structural shock’ transmitted through ‘critical nodes’ of the global energy system. They analyse how disruptions at 'strategic checkpoints' can trigger energy supply shocks and price volatility across global economies, thereby increasing inflation, creating supply chain challenges, and slowing economic growth. The authors demonstrate that these disruptions typically concentrate on the part of the world dependent on importing energy and/or on relatively underdeveloped countries that have less ability to adapt to changing conditions than other countries. In addition, these disruptions will generate environmental consequences: carbon emissions increase, natural ecosystems degrade, and the timing of the transition from fossil-fuel-based to renewable energy systems is delayed due to these energy challenges. The article's biggest contribution is theorizing the economy-environment relationship as a mutually reinforcing loop: economic instability translates into increased environmental degradation and environmental stress translates into longer-term economic vulnerability. This framework offers important new insights into how international tensions will influence the evolution of development patterns across an increasingly interrelated and potentially less stable global community.